Florida Was Forecast to Drop in 2026. Here's What Actually Happened.

Realtor.com said prices would fall across most of Florida. Nine months in, they haven't. The real problem is mortgage rates. Here's what's driving this market and why I still buy here.

Oct 04, 2026

lorida home prices were supposed to fall this year. Most of them didn’t.

Realtor.com’s 2026 forecast called for Florida’s eight biggest metros to drop 1.9% on average. WFTV reported that Orange and Osceola counties would slip about 1.6%. I checked that against what has happened since.

Forecast vs. Reality

Prices held up

• Florida’s single-family median hit $415,000 in August, up 1.2% from a year ago. That’s six straight months of year-over-year gains, per Florida Realtors.

• Condos and townhouses climbed nearly 3% to just under $298,000.

• Orlando is about flat. Redfin’s first-half numbers put the metro median near $408,000, up 0.1%.

Source: Realtor.com forecast via WFTV; Florida Realtors; Redfin via WDBO

Source: Florida Realtors, August 2026 report

Inventory got tighter, not looser

Single-family inventory is down about 13% statewide from a year ago. When fewer homes hit the market, prices don’t drop. Closed sales slipped about 1.4%. Florida Realtors’ economist called that a market leveling off, not turning.

Source: Florida Realtors, August 2026

Source: Florida Realtors data as reported in market summaries (April 2026 figures) and Florida Realtors August report (August 4.3 months per a secondary summary)

Rates went the other way

The forecast assumed rates would ease to around 6.3%. They didn’t. Freddie Mac had the 30-year at 7.28% on October 1. A year ago it was 6.34%. It’s the highest since November 2023. Realtor.com’s own economist says that adds more than $200 a month in principal and interest on a median-priced home.

Source: Freddie Mac PMMS weekly readings

Florida isn’t getting cheaper. It’s getting harder to finance. Sales are slowing, but sellers who don’t have to sell aren’t cutting prices. That changes how you should invest.

Orlando: The Long View

Zoom out and Orlando ran hard, pulled back, then settled. ORRA’s metro median was about $250,000 in February 2020. It peaked near $387,000 in June 2022 and sat around $385,000 in March 2026. Redfin’s January-March averages for the city have climbed steadily since 2022, up about 12% to roughly $403,000.

Source: Orlando Regional REALTOR Association (selected data points from published reports); Redfin via WFTV

Source: Realtor.com via FRED

Where the Real Damage Is: Condos

Realtor.com’s data showed Florida condo listing prices down nearly 11% in October. Single-family was down about 3.6%. The causes are structural: post-Surfside safety rules, special assessments, higher HOA dues, and insurance. Buying a condo? Read the HOA budget and reserves before you look at the price.

Source: Realtor.com analysis

What’s Being Built, and Why It Matters

• Tourism. Orlando drew a record 76.7 million visitors in 2025, 70.3 million of them domestic. That money pays for jobs, hotels, and rental demand.

• Epic Universe. Universal’s new park opened in 2025. It brought new hotels and pushed through a Kirkman Road extension with dedicated bus lanes. Disney answered by planning to roughly double its parks spending to about $60 billion over ten years. When two giants spend billions in the same market, that tells you something.

• Transportation. The Sunshine Corridor would run SunRail from the airport to the Convention Center near Epic Universe. Universal has put up land and money. It’s a multibillion-dollar project and still years out. MCO is setting traffic records and straining at the edges.

• Corporate moves. Travel + Leisure Co. opened its new downtown Orlando headquarters with 900+ jobs and a $36 million investment. The Orlando Economic Partnership keeps announcing expansions too, like Worth AI adding 30 jobs at an average of $190,000 in September.

• Healthcare and education. Lake Nona’s Medical City, UCF’s health sciences campus, and Orlando Health’s hospital growth add high-wage jobs that don’t depend on tourists.

Source: Visit Orlando via Orlando Magazine (2025); secondary reporting for 2022 and 2024

The Big One: Florida’s Property Tax Vote on November 3

This is the biggest property tax change in decades, and most investors haven’t read it. The Legislature put an amendment on the ballot. It needs 60% to pass. If it does:

• The homestead exemption goes from $50,000 to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, for non-school taxes only. It also sets a path toward full elimination.

• The annual assessment cap on non-homestead property, rentals included, drops from 10% to 5% starting January 1, 2027.

• New residents have to hold Florida residency for five years before they get the bigger exemption.

Source: CBS Miami

What it means for investors

• The exemption is for owner-occupied homes, not rentals. The 5% cap does help your holding costs.

• Lower homestead taxes make owning more attractive, which supports demand.

• The risk: Local governments lose a lot of revenue and may go looking for it elsewhere, like fees or millage on non-homestead property. That’s my read of the incentives. The amendment doesn’t say it. Watch for it.

I’m not telling you how to vote. Read what’s on the ballot before your numbers depend on it.

Insurance Is Moving the Right Way

Insurance has killed more Florida deals than purchase price ever did. The state says Citizens policyholders are getting an average 8.7% decrease at spring 2026 renewals, and 17 new insurers have entered since the reforms. Those numbers come from the state’s own announcement, so check your actual quote. Still, the direction is better.

Source: Florida Governor’s Office / FLOIR, January 2026

The Economic Picture: Florida vs. Other States

Quick reality check. The “everyone’s moving to Florida” story is out of date.

Still growing, just slower

• Florida had about 23.7 million people in April 2026, up 1.41%. State economists expect roughly 297,000 new residents a year through 2030. All of it comes from migration.

• Florida leads the nation in people moving in from other states and ranks second in net migration behind Texas. But net migration dropped from about +126,000 in 2023 to about +67,600 in 2024.

• On Census domestic migration, Florida ranked eighth, behind North Carolina, Texas, and South Carolina.

Source: U.S. Census (2020); Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, June 2026

Source: Florida Chamber migration fact sheet, Feb 2026

Source: U.S. Census via State Economic Watch

Florida still adds hundreds of thousands of people a year. It just isn’t the only Sun Belt option anymore. Pick your county and your product carefully.

The economy keeps growing

Florida TaxWatch projects real GDP growth around 2.5% in 2026 and about 2.3 million more residents by 2035. Florida has one of the largest state economies in the country and no state income tax. That pulls in high earners, retirees, and businesses from higher-tax states.

Source: Florida TaxWatch Economic Forecast

Not enough homes where people want them

Florida Realtors’ July analysis reportedly put Orlando’s housing deficit near 30,000 units. Markets that underbuild don’t stay cheap for long.

A Real Deal in a Soft Market

In November 2025 I bought a tax deed in Orlando for $198,100. I put $120,000 into a full permitted gut rehab, built to 2026 code. It’s leased at $2,600 a month, and the current ARV is $400,000. Total cash in: $319,497, all cash, no debt. Current cash-on-cash return is 7.1%. I bought it on the numbers, not on a forecast, and I’d do it again in this market. Margin is what protects you when headlines swing.

Source: Yogi Ganeshram case study, Orange Center Blvd tax deed rehab

Source: Yogi Ganeshram case study. Modeled projections, not guarantees

The Risks, Before Someone Else Tells You

• Rates. 7.28% squeezes financed buyers and flippers. Cash and low leverage win.

• Condos. Don’t touch one without reading the HOA financials.

• Insurance. Better, but still a real cost. Get quotes before you offer.

• Tourism. Orlando leans on visitors. A shock to travel hits local jobs.

• Hurricanes. They come with Florida. Price them in.

• The ballot. Wait for the result before you lock in long-term tax assumptions.

Why Florida Is Still One of the Best Places to Buy

1. Real demand. Record tourism, new corporate headquarters, a growing healthcare cluster, and billions in private investment.

2. No state income tax, and possible property tax relief coming.

3. Tight inventory holds prices up even when sales slow.

4. More motivated sellers and more distressed deals. Florida reportedly leads the nation in foreclosure filings. That’s where tax deeds, foreclosures, probate, and short sales give you the best entry prices.

5. Insurance is stabilizing after years of crisis.

6. A housing deficit. When rates come down, the pent-up demand shows up.

The Bottom Line

The forecast said Florida would fall. The market said prices hold while financing gets harder. That’s not a crash. It’s a market that pays people who buy right.

My rules. Buy on the numbers, not on appreciation. Underwrite the exit at today’s value. Know your insurance, taxes, and HOA cold. Stay in cash or low leverage while rates are above 7%.

Want help running numbers on a deal or reading a specific neighborhood? Reach out. I’ll tell you straight what I see.

Forecasts and projections are not guarantees. This is market commentary, not financial or legal advice.